Չինաստան, թե ԱՄՆ. Ո՞վ կապահովի ռազմավարական և տնտեսական գերակայություն այս դարում:

On Thursday, October 30, during their first meeting since 2019, Xi Jinping gained the upper hand over Donald Trump. The quiet leader prevailed over the brash showman, the free trader over the protectionist. In South Korea, at Busan airport where the negotiation took place, the Chinese president held more cards than his American counterpart. At least symbolically, it was a significant moment in the ongoing battle between China and the United States for global supremacy. At stake remains the same question: Which of these two giants will secure strategic and economic dominance in this century?

Read more Subscribers only Trump-Xi meeting brings temporary lull to escalation between US and China

Beyond the face-off between the self-tanned former reality TV host and the somber Marxist-Leninist, this summit confirmed the uniqueness of the Chinese-American relationship. It is indeed one of rivalry and global competition, but the struggle for primacy – the contest for "leadership" – is constrained, limited by the economic interdependence of the two players. Many have suggested the two countries are far along the path of decoupling. That is not yet the case. Their strategic tensions coexist with a volume of trade that reached $600 billion in 2024.

The summit was brief: 90 minutes, including translation time. In the trade war initiated by Trump, Xi's position was clear: If you do not sell me your most advanced microprocessors, you will not have my rare earths, and I will stop buying your soybeans. The Republican president backed down – America needs China. During the Cold War (1950-1989), US-Soviet trade never exceeded $2 billion annually. Today, it is $2 billion a day.

Quiet strength

Since the burst of tariffs that Trump unleashed on the world in April, China has been the only country to refuse negotiations with Washington. Confident in its quiet strength, China responded tit for tat. Periods of truce and conflict followed one another. At the heart of the battle were two factors: the next generation of microprocessors, those used in artificial intelligence (AI), and rare earths, essential for consumer electronics and modern high technology. The US has an advantage in the former, while China holds an almost complete monopoly on the latter – 60% of production but, more importantly, 90% of the refining capacity for these metals.

You have 57.08% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.