Ընտրեք ցուցադրվող լեզուն
By Marc McGowan
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This month’s AFL draft, held over two nights on November 19 and 20, promises to be one of the most compromised and unpredictable editions on record.
There are academy and father-son players scattered throughout the pointy end and right through the first and second rounds. The evenness of the player pool after the top 10 means things could get wild.
But we did take a stab at where bids might come because they will have a significant impact on what happens with the impacted clubs’ subsequent selections.
Zeke Uwland, Daniel Annable, Harry Dean and Willem Duursma will be among the hot properties in this year’s AFL national draft.Credit: Artwork: Stephen Kiprillis
We have not factored in potential trades despite a number of pick swaps being discussed, including Carlton sending pick nine to West Coast to slide back a few spots and pick up more points out the back to match a bid on Harry Dean.
That might also guarantee the Eagles won’t bid on Dean.
Here are our predictions, from 1 to 31.
All signs point to Duursma becoming the third member of his family to be a first-round selection – joining Xavier (No.18 in 2018) and Zane (No.4 in 2023) – but the only one to be the No.1 pick. He is most commonly compared to Brendon Goddard for his size, positional versatility, bold but excellent kicking skills, and overhead marking. Duursma has also been likened to Hayden Young, while he considers himself a mix of Xavier and Zane.
If not: We’d be surprised. The expectation is West Coast will select Duursma before placing at least one bid on an academy or father-son prospect.
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A back stress injury meant Uwland missed this year’s championships after an outstanding bottom-age campaign last year that had him pegged as the best prospect in the 2025 class. The man viewed as Errol Gulden 2.0 did not reach those heights in the limited football he played after recovering, but his football IQ is as good as anyone’s in this draft. He boasts silky skills and can run all day. Might captain the Suns one day.
If not: There has been noise for a while, which heated up during the trade period, that the Eagles might bid on Carlton father-son defender Harry Dean. They could also opt to bid on Dylan Patterson or Daniel Annable here.
Patterson might be the most damaging and exciting player in this year’s draft. He takes the game on with his kicking and fast feet – including a nasty goose step – and sometimes tries to do too much, but showed in a VFL game against Carlton late in the season that he can rein his attacking nature in. Likened to Andrew McLeod, Patterson rejected NRL clubs’ overtures to stay on the AFL path, and could be a difference-maker for the Suns.
If not: Gold Coast will desperately hope this doesn’t happen because it would cruel their chances of securing their five fancied academy prospects. West Coast might pick Cooper Duff-Tytler instead, or bid on Dean or Annable.
The Eagles have long been linked to Duff-Tytler, a talented ex-basketballer who boasts similar traits to AFL ruck stars Luke Jackson and Tom De Koning with his athleticism, leap, agility and follow-up work. He showed in a VFL appearance for Essendon, where he played predominantly as a forward, that he can impact the game in attack as well, even if that remains a query in some quarters. Should develop rapidly in an AFL environment.
If not: Some recruiters think the Eagles would at least consider Sullivan Robey. There is also a chance Richmond are already picking here, and they could snap up Robey before placing bids.
Robey is this year’s bolter, after many clubs hoped they could keep him a secret once he graduated from Rowville’s senior side to belatedly burst onto the scene for the Ranges mid-season. He grew about 17 centimetres in the past two years and developed physically, in equal parts owing to an impressive home gym and his dedication. First made his mark as a lead-up forward, then showed his strength and power as a midfielder.
If not: The Tigers might start bidding first. They are also linked to Xavier Taylor and Sam Grlj.
The Lions’ premiership window will never shut if kids like Annable keep popping up, after the Ashcroft brothers arrived in recent years. Annable racks up disposals, excels at stoppages and is creative by hand. There are all sorts of flattering comparisons ahead of the draft each year, and recruiters see a bit of Simon Black in Annable. Brisbane will gleefully match any bid on Annable, and would quietly be chuffed if it comes this late.
If not: The Tigers either stopped bidding and selected Taylor or Grlj, or bid on Dean instead.
This would be ideal for the Blues, given Dean is widely rated as a top-five talent. A bid here would also not wipe out both their first-round picks. Dean is one of the best key defender prospects in years, and stands out because there is a major shortage of that position in this crop. He aggressively flies for marks and spoils, reads the ball superbly, and has the athleticism and composure to thrive at the top level.
If not: A Dean bid has already come and gone, and the Tigers are bidding on someone else. It would be a shock if Dean did not receive a bid by this pick.
Taylor once polarised because of inconsistent decision-making and execution, including a habit for kicking into the man on the mark – but he has cleaned that up (mostly), and risen sharply on draft boards. Was best afield in the Ranges’ grand final triumph, where his intercepting skills, athleticism, versatility and competitiveness were on show. Importantly, there is confidence Taylor will stand up defensively in the AFL.
If not: The Tigers went for Sam Grlj’s combination of blazing speed, endurance and athleticism.
The Bombers could shape the draft with their back-to-back picks. The suspicion is they will invest in midfielders after parting with Dylan Shiel, Will Setterfield and Ben Hobbs, on top of the Zach Merrett situation, Darcy Parish’s injury history, and with Elijah Tsatas still proving himself. Sharp won the Larke Medal as the best-performed player at the championships, and is a physical, competitive onballer who wins the ball in big doses.
If not: Essendon have also been linked to Sam Cumming, Jacob Farrow and forward-ruck Aidan Schubert.
A shoulder injury cut Cumming’s season short, but not before he stamped himself as a potential top-10 selection. He is a dual-position threat who can impact the game as a deep forward with his marking ability and knack for kicking goals, or as a midfielder, where his physicality, aggression and dynamism are all ticks. There have even been Mark Ricciuto comparisons. Recruiters also like Cumming’s defensive commitment.
If not: The Bombers might instead opt for Farrow, who some believe has more upside and would likely start at half-back before eventually moving into the midfield.
The Demons are never afraid to go against the grain. This is higher than Nairn has been projected, but Melbourne have him in their sights. Nairn had a seven-goal game at the championships before demonstrating his ball-winning wares with consecutive 30-plus-disposal outings to end the season. He is a high-IQ footballer, can run all day as a wingman, could develop into an inside midfielder, marks well overhead and is a neat kick.
If not: They would love Sam Cumming to still be on the board, and might select small forward Lachy Dovaston, defender Jacob Farrow or try to fortify their key defensive posts for the future with Blake Thredgold.
Dovaston, who hails from the same Talent League club as Nick Watson, is the best small forward in this draft. He might lack Watson’s tricks, but still has his share, and has greater running capacity and is considered superior defensively to when the star Hawk was the same age. Dovaston kicks goals for fun (and lots of them), is consistent, has become more selfless, runs hard up and down the ground, and tested brilliantly at the combine.
If not: Farrow would give the Demons another kicking weapon across half-back, and could become a midfielder in time. Thredgold would also make sense with Steven May nearing the end of his career, while they could pair Latrelle Pickett with his cousin Kysaiah.
Little is known across the league about the Hawks’ plans, but Farrow would be a good get. His draft range starts at Essendon’s picks, and he has admirers into the mid-teens. Farrow is one of the best kicks in this class, makes quick decisions, impacts the game as an interceptor, and showed his agility in combine testing. He has also performed well in the midfield, but is more proven down back, where he will start and possibly stay in the AFL.
If not: The Hawks might go for Sam Grlj’s mix of speed and endurance, or they could look to bolster their forward line with one of Mitch Marsh, Aidan Schubert or Archie Ludowyke.
The Blues might lose this pick, depending on where a Harry Dean bid comes. They would love Lachy Dovaston to still be available, but Grlj has speed to burn and was one of only two players to run the two-kilometre time trial quicker than six minutes at the combine. He entered top-five calculations with a superb start to the year before hitting a rough patch, but his VFL form for Richmond was excellent. Grlj could eventually become a midfielder.
If not: Carlton might continue their small forward pursuit and pick Latrelle Pickett, or could be in the market for a defender such as Oskar Taylor or Josh Lindsay, who bring different strengths.
It is dangerous to predict what the Giants might do, but Taylor seems a good fit. His stocks increased the longer the year went after not playing at the championships, capped by his eye-catching results at the combine, where he set the fastest 20-metre sprint time and finished second for agility. Taylor puts that acceleration to great use to quickly create separation and get the ball moving forward. He can tidy up his kicking and improve defensively.
If not: The Giants have also been linked to Latrelle Pickett, while Grlj would be in contention if he were available. Others mentioned were Archie Ludowyke and West Coast next-generation academy forward Tylah Williams.
Melbourne star Kysaiah Pickett’s cousin has top-20 interest in what is an even crop, but there is a chance he is still up for grabs in the 20s. Pickett turns 20 in December, so he is slightly older than his draft peers, but has impressed this year with his progress at Glenelg. The Eagles are among the clubs that have kept a close eye on Pickett, who is quick, elusive, capable of the mercurial, and has the cheek that the best small forwards possess.
If not: The Eagles might opt for the safer option of sweet-kicking defender Josh Lindsay, or could grab a forward such as Aidan Schubert, Mitch Marsh or Archie Ludowyke.
Lindsay is an excellent decision-maker and arguably the best kick in the draft – the result of years of dedication honing his skills, including a strict morning routine – so this would be a good result for the Bulldogs. He has been a consistently high performer at all levels, and is viewed as a safe selection who could slot straight into a defensive role. There are varying opinions on whether Lindsay could develop into a midfielder.
If not: The Dogs have a key defensive need, so they could go for Thredgold, who is comfortably the best tall backman still available.
Recruiters took notice of Thredgold’s solid job last year as a bottom-ager on future Collingwood forward Charlie West. He also quelled fellow first-round prospect Mitch Marsh in this year’s SANFL under-18 grand final and dominated in the air to cap a strong finals series. Thredgold is on North Melbourne’s radar, but the Crows might get in first. He is a tad undersized but a genuine lockdown defender who is strong, athletic and competitive.
If not: There are lots of South Australian options, if the Crows want to go down that path. Marsh, Aidan Schubert, Jevan Phillipou and Harley Barker would all be viable options.
Ludowyke started the year brightly for the Dragons and the AFL Academy after long being rated the best key forward in this class. However, he had a goalless championships – which was not all his fault, as a player relying on service – before suffering a season-ending PCL injury in Metro’s win over the Allies. This would be a classic Cats play to invest in a player with good size and athleticism who launches himself at the Sherrin.
If not: Geelong regularly, and successfully, ignore the status quo in the draft. Mitch Marsh, Aidan Schubert, Louis Emmett and Harley Barker might be in play. Or could they bid on Jai Murray (Gold Coast) or Tylah Williams (West Coast)?
The Dockers gleefully drafted 2025 Rising Star winner Murphy Reid at around this pick last year, and could unearth another bargain in Marsh, who kicked the most goals at the 2025 championships. He emerged from the carnival as a top-10 contender who some thought could play other positions, but appears to have slid after a so-so end to the season. But the talent and upside are there, and Marsh could add to a talented Freo forward line.
If not: The Dockers could place a bid on West Coast next-generation academy forward Tylah Williams, or might punt on upside with one of All-Australian winger Harley Barker or talented forward Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves.
The Bombers might snap up Schubert with one of their first two picks, so would probably be delighted if he is still up for grabs here. His awkward ball drop and kicking style are talking points, and put some clubs off, while he measured shorter than some scouts expected. But Schubert had an outstanding championships to surge into the top-10 mix. Talls can sometimes drift, given the risks involved, but his competitiveness and endurance appeal.
If not: There are interesting names still available, so Essendon may continue the midfield theme with Oliver Greeves, add more talent to their front end with Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, or go for ACL-recovering winger Harley Barker.
Greeves is linked to the Hawks by virtue of their rejected application to include him in their next-generation academy program because of his Indigenous background. He also trained with them during the pre-season through the AFL Academy. Greeves is polarising – with most queries centred on his running ability – but a contested beast who has the height and ability to also impact the game when he plays as a marking forward.
If not: Hawthorn did a great job rebuilding their list in the draft, and in trade and free agency, so there are not many holes. They can probably afford to take a risk on Harley Barker, or show patience with someone such as Louis Emmett.
Second round
There is talk the Kangaroos might trade for Gold Coast’s pick 18 (before it is absorbed in matching bids), but it is unclear if that move is directly related to trying to select key defender Blake Thredgold. The popular view on Emmett, who finished third in the time trial at the combine, is that he will need to develop into a key-position player at either end – but there is upside here. His draft range starts far earlier than this and could be wider.
If not: Could the Roos bid on some of the glut of players in this part of the draft, such as Sydney’s Max King, Harry Kyle and Lachy Carmichael, Essendon’s Adam Sweid, Gold Coast’s Jai Murray and Beau Addinsall, Carlton’s Jack Ison or Collingwood’s Zac McCarthy?
As always with bids, particularly in this region of the draft, there is a great unknown, but recruiters think this is roughly where Kyle might bob up. The Swans academy product finished top 10 in three tests at the combine, including winning the running vertical jump. Part of Kyle’s appeal is that this was his first year in the academy, so there is serious scope for improvement. He is a good size, has a big tank and brings positional versatility.
If not: The Kangaroos might bid on someone else, or not at all. They previously drafted Brayden George off an ACL, so they may be wary to do so again with Harley Barker, but the South Australian could reap great rewards. Other options might be Jevan Phillipou or Riley Onley.
Just like his St Kilda-listed brother Mattaes, Phillipou made an impression with his supreme confidence in club interviews. Injury sidelined him from the championships, and at different stages of his junior career, but there is plenty to like, including how self-driven and talented he is. The ex-decathlete is a good athlete, and brings the speed and dynamism that clubs want. Some recruiters rate him in the teens, so don’t be surprised if he is long gone.
If not: The Roos could go for someone else in this range, such as Harley Barker or Riley Onley, but rival recruiters don’t expect them to go for Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves, given his similarities to Zane Duursma.
There is risk with Barker, who sustained an ACL rupture playing for Sturt after earning All-Australian honours. If a club is willing to take that on board, there is so much to like about Barker’s prospects, given he was considered a top-10 smokey after his championships performance. His size, speed, endurance and skill add up to an impressive package, and he uses his running ability to get involved at both ends. There is a chance he slides.
If not: The Dons might bid on a player instead, but might not want to tempt fate on their academy players Adam Sweid and Hussien El Achkar. Other options include Riley Onley, Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves and Sam Swadling.
Injuries impacted the start of Ison’s season, but the Blues’ next-generation academy prospect finished strongly – and opposition recruiters took notice. Ison’s height and aerial prowess make him a candidate to fill various roles across the ground, beyond just the midfield. There is still a smallish sample size on him, but the scouting report acknowledges that he can do things others in this range cannot, so Carlton will gleefully match a bid.
If not: There are a heap of other players in this part of the draft who are connected to clubs, and clubs will likely start bidding upon them somewhere here.
Could the Bombers make a double bid? There is probably not a better athlete in this draft, and he blew everyone away with his 80-centimetre vertical jump at the combine. King took some breathtaking grabs throughout the season, and his individual highlights and potential are why he was once viewed as a top-10 contender – and why a bid could come in the teens. The challenge in rating him is whether his football IQ will catch up to his athleticism.
If not: As above, there are many other bidding candidates, or players such as Riley Onley, Noah Hibbins-Hargreaves and Sam Swadling likely come into calculations.
The glimpses are incredibly exciting when it comes to Hibbins-Hargreaves, who produced some enormous performances in his draft season, including several bags of goals. He is best suited as a forward, where his class and skill come to the fore. That said, there are concerns about Hibbins-Hargreaves’ inconsistency and contest work at ground level. Some recruiters would not consider him here, but others might jump earlier than this.
If not: Could the Bombers pick their own academy product, Adam Sweid, here instead? Rival recruiters have asked that question.
Will the Swans match a third academy player in the top 30? In a draft where many prospects are flawed or erratic, Carmichael’s ultra-consistency across several years is a big tick. He was an All-Australian at under-16 level in 2023, and earned that same honour at this year’s under-18 championships, where he was also the Allies’ MVP. Carmichael is defensively sound, but his kicking and relative lack of athleticism keep him in this range.
If not: Sydney may not match a Carmichael bid if it comes so soon after ones on Harry Kyle and Max King, but it will be interesting to see. The Dogs could also bid on any number of other club-tied prospects, including Gold Coast pair Jai Murray and Beau Addinsall.
At some point, Onley’s upside will be too tempting to ignore. There are many clubs wary to draft him, but recruiters typically acknowledge that his size for a midfielder, and even his potential to play other positions, mean he could have a good AFL career. Onley also played well enough at the championships to earn All-Australian selection despite suffering a season-ending hamstring tendon injury in the last game against Metro.
If not: The Dogs could keep bidding here. There is some noise about athletic ruckman Marcus Krasnadamskis, who several clubs are intrigued about, but that might come later. Sam Swadling, Leon Kickett, Fred Rodriguez, Blake Oudshoorn-Bennier, Jack Dalton and Avery Thomas might be other options.
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Marc McGowan is a sports reporter for The AgeConnect via Twitter.
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